Post by Kilarin on Mar 19, 2008 0:15:22 GMT -5
I caught a few minutes out of the middle of a tech radio program a week or so ago. The host was discussing the Amazon Kindle. He admitted that it was ugly, and had it's problems, but that this was still early in ereader evolution and we should now expect rapid improvements. He then came to a very interesting conclusion. He stated that paper back books would be dead within 5 years.
My wife has a Sony Reader and she loves it. When I mentioned the above to her, she said, "Yes, that makes sense. Hardbacks are for collectors. Paperbacks are for people who just want to read the book."
And I'm thinking that she MAY have something. I doubt if the paperback will be completely gone in 5 years, but it might be well on it's way out. My wife has already changed the way she reads. She downloads books from Gutenberg to read as text on her Sony Reader and audio books from Librivox to listen to on the same reader.
Now, personally, I wouldn't touch the Kindle with a 10 foot pole. It phones home way to much for my privacy taste. And while I LOVE the electronic ink display on my wife's reader, it still hasn't reached the stage of advancement where I would quite be ready to replace books yet. But I admit it's getting close. The display is really good, the size is smaller than many paperbacks, but the interface needs some work, there should be a search function, and the price is still too high. But give it just a few more iterations, and they will have something well worth using. My dream machine would be something like the ASUS eee pc, but with an electronic ink display on the outside. So close the little palm top and you've got a nice electronic ink reader with very simple page forward and back controls. Need to search, bookmark, or do anything more advanced, pop it open and you've got an oled display and a keyboard.
Near the same time that I was contemplating the above, I ran into this article pointing out that Half of Japan's top 10 best-selling books last year started out as cell phone-based books.
The whole thing has got my head swirling about the future of e-books published outside of the mainstream publishing houses. [url=http://www.diskuspublishing.com/[/url]Diskus[/url] is already offering books specifically formatted for the sony reader. I know that e-publishing has been struggling, but is that about to change? How will the existence of high quality, easy to use and relatively cheap ereaders affect the industry? When ereaders are as common as mp3 players, easier to carry around than a paperback, and when downloading books is the MOST popular way of reading, will the mainstream publishing houses become obsolete other than as advertising agencies?
Of course, there could be disadvantages as well. Piracy of books could easily become as common as piracy of music is now. AND, will the fact that you can download any book published before 1923 for free cut into the market? (Not everyone likes OLD books as much as my wife and I do)
And another problem is the format standard. The Kindle takes html but not pdf. The sony ereader takes pdf but not html. Both take plain old text, thank goodness, but that limits your formatting options and eliminates any illustration possibilities. Xaa pushed for an html standard for ebooks in <this article> (its way down the page, FIND "An essay on the e-publishing industry"), and I think that could really help the epublishing industry.
My crystal ball is cloudy. I'm not certain where things are headed, but I think we very well might see some big changes in how publishing works in the next few years. And it MIGHT improve the odds for those working outside the mainstream publishing houses.
My wife has a Sony Reader and she loves it. When I mentioned the above to her, she said, "Yes, that makes sense. Hardbacks are for collectors. Paperbacks are for people who just want to read the book."
And I'm thinking that she MAY have something. I doubt if the paperback will be completely gone in 5 years, but it might be well on it's way out. My wife has already changed the way she reads. She downloads books from Gutenberg to read as text on her Sony Reader and audio books from Librivox to listen to on the same reader.
Now, personally, I wouldn't touch the Kindle with a 10 foot pole. It phones home way to much for my privacy taste. And while I LOVE the electronic ink display on my wife's reader, it still hasn't reached the stage of advancement where I would quite be ready to replace books yet. But I admit it's getting close. The display is really good, the size is smaller than many paperbacks, but the interface needs some work, there should be a search function, and the price is still too high. But give it just a few more iterations, and they will have something well worth using. My dream machine would be something like the ASUS eee pc, but with an electronic ink display on the outside. So close the little palm top and you've got a nice electronic ink reader with very simple page forward and back controls. Need to search, bookmark, or do anything more advanced, pop it open and you've got an oled display and a keyboard.
Near the same time that I was contemplating the above, I ran into this article pointing out that Half of Japan's top 10 best-selling books last year started out as cell phone-based books.
The whole thing has got my head swirling about the future of e-books published outside of the mainstream publishing houses. [url=http://www.diskuspublishing.com/[/url]Diskus[/url] is already offering books specifically formatted for the sony reader. I know that e-publishing has been struggling, but is that about to change? How will the existence of high quality, easy to use and relatively cheap ereaders affect the industry? When ereaders are as common as mp3 players, easier to carry around than a paperback, and when downloading books is the MOST popular way of reading, will the mainstream publishing houses become obsolete other than as advertising agencies?
Of course, there could be disadvantages as well. Piracy of books could easily become as common as piracy of music is now. AND, will the fact that you can download any book published before 1923 for free cut into the market? (Not everyone likes OLD books as much as my wife and I do)
And another problem is the format standard. The Kindle takes html but not pdf. The sony ereader takes pdf but not html. Both take plain old text, thank goodness, but that limits your formatting options and eliminates any illustration possibilities. Xaa pushed for an html standard for ebooks in <this article> (its way down the page, FIND "An essay on the e-publishing industry"), and I think that could really help the epublishing industry.
My crystal ball is cloudy. I'm not certain where things are headed, but I think we very well might see some big changes in how publishing works in the next few years. And it MIGHT improve the odds for those working outside the mainstream publishing houses.
